Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
