A mere two months prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while the Villa manager berated him for missing a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was whether his displays were an indicator or the reason of Villa's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. When the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win any of their first six games, now sit only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Hopefuls?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, even as the victories have stacked up.
Per Opta, on just two occasions have Villa had an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team which has just won 10 in a row, the Villans look curiously susceptible – but at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping their star man to save the day with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more versus United.
His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents had more efforts and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, cannot keep on blasting his shots into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent could transform into the force he resembled in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
This could contain the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought the midfielder now would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. When the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
